Jet Stream Behaving Badly?

WWW.Winters

The predictions for future weather and climate change is for Warmer Wetter Wilder winters and hotter drier summers. Our current UK weather is living up to the WWW category for this winter. However take a look at North America where life threatening cold weather is being caused by a shift in the polar vortex.
Our experience last spring and the 2012 winter got the global warming sceptics rubbing their hands and saying this is not global warming. Well I think the current expression is climate change.

Weather experts are now blaming much of our unusual weather patterns on the jet stream which is getting kinky. Scientists explain the reason for this on the shrinking ice sheets of the artic which results in the surface having a greater area of darker colour (sea instead of ice) which absorbs more heat. This in turn slows down the jet stream and causes it to meander. Hence it becomes kinked with the weather becoming unbalanced. At present we have it warmer, wetter, windier and South America has record high temperatures whereas in the US the brass monkeys are running for shelter. So it depends where the fickle finger of fate chooses to kink up the jet stream but I am sure it is much more complicated than that.

Everyone has an opinion on whether climate change and global warming is happening but as more and more scientists now agree it is can we afford to take the chance and bury our heads in the sand.
Even Mr Cameron whilst visiting flooded areas said we must expect more situations like this to happen more often and we should make plans to deal with it.

Looking at the evidence I believe that we should expect more extremes of weather and higher sea levels.

As a coastal warden I have had the pleasure of working on a project called 2150 Coastal communities which has been consulting planning for the future taking into account climate change. Take a look at the website  http://kentcoastalcommunities2150.org.uk/

You might say why is an old git like me involved in a project like this as no doubt I will not be around to see the outcome of the predictions. However it is very likely that my grandkids will and have to deal with changing weather patterns. Whether the current seesawing of our weather is the start I cannot say but the old boy scouts motto of "be prepared" seems to be prudent.

Climate Change 2150. Towards our Children's Children's Children

CC 2150

Planning for climate change up to the year 2150 may seem somewhat bizarre but there is a project involving Thanet just doing that. It is probably certain that all of us will not be around then so it is really a question of thinking beyond our own lives and looking towards those of our descendants.

What can we expect to happen?


The debate still goes on and those more clever than I have their theories. Are we really at a tipping point which could determine whether we become the new tropics or is the gulf stream about to be switched off by melting ice and we enter  a new ice age? Remember we are on the same level as Alaska and no gulf stream would leave us with an Alaska climate.

Current climate


Looking at recent weather patterns it would be easy to jump to the conclusion that we are moving to more extreme weather patterns. But then has this not been happening over the past millions of years? We have on a long timeline been a tropical region before and also an ice age.

Planning


Planning for climate change in coastal communities is therefore not easy or precise so it is necessary to look at many scenarios. Looking at the potential for warming and increased sea levels some of the things we are planning today are starting to err on the possibility of this happening. Take for instance our Turner Centre, it was thought prudent to raise its base higher to take into account increasing sea levels.
We are also seeing the the new Margate sea defence being built but again the design allows for an increase its height in the event of future increased sea levels.

Maybe we should also be looking at the Dreamland site. It would appear silly not to consider this site very carefully since much of it is low lying if not below sea level. If you consider sea level rises it would appear unwise to build housing on this site. Maybe the idea of a heritage theme park is a much better idea. At least rides would be much easier to shift than housing if the sea threatened the site. Maybe we should consider the idea of a marina.

Cheques and balances.


Climate change will bring threats and opportunities to our coastal community. Warmer weather could present more tourism. Perhaps we would be able to grow more exotic fruit and vegetables all the year round. On the other hand we could lose land and have to consider sea defences like those in Holland. The more you think about it the more threats and opportunities present themselves .

Involving the community.


A start has been made involving the community. Thanet Coast Project has had its first discussion group on the subject involving volunteer coastal wardens and more are planned. It is thought that the work of the wardens is essential in the planning process as their monitoring of our coast in terms of wildlife and use gives early indications of change.

The future


Who knows what the future holds and the more I think about it I switch from 'am I bothered' I will not be here to maybe I have a chance to consider what we leave behind for our Children's Children's Children and that does worry me.

Further information


If you want to find out more visit
www.kent.gov.uk/CC2150
and
www.cc2150.co.uk